Evaluating the different responses to climatic factors between snow water equivalent and snow cover area in the Central Tianshan Mountains     

Wu  Senyao  Zhang  Xueliang  Du  Jinkang  Wang  Huadong 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):1563-1576

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Alpine snow is an important part of the water cycle in arid/semiarid regions and has a great influence on runoff and ecosystems. In this study, both optical...  相似文献   

机器学习在广西台风极大风速预报中的应用     

吴玉霜  黄小燕  陈家正  赵华生 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):26-31

以1980-2020年广西台风期间桂林、梧州、龙州、南宁、玉林等5个气象观测站的地面日极大风速为研究对象,采用多元线性回归(MR)、支持向量机(SVM)、模糊神经网络(FNN)等三种较为常用的线性和非线性方法分别进行预报建模,对2011-2020年共10a独立样本的检验.结果 表明,在全样本风速预报的平均绝对误差上,FNN模型对桂林站、梧州站、龙州站、玉林站共4个站点预报的平均绝对误差最小,总体预报精度最好,MR预报模型则对南宁站有较好的预报能力,SVM模型预报效果总体偏差.对于6级以上大风的TS评分、命中率、空报率和预报偏差等4个评估指标的统计,FNN模型的预测精度最高且相对稳定,MR方案次之,SVM在三种方案中预报效果最差.FNN方法对广西台风期间地面日极大风速的预报有较好的参考作用.  相似文献   

Application of a unified linear yield criterion in plane strain to study the strength theory effect in geotechnical engineering     

Changguang Zhang  Mingming Cai  Junhai Zhao  Lizhou Wu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(22):758

The plane strain condition is a common, but polyaxial stress state for geotechnical structure designs, in which the selection of an appropriate yield or failure criterion is crucial to reasonably account for the intermediate principal stress. Under plane strain condition, a unified linear yield criterion for seven commonly used geotechnical yield criteria is presented in conjunction with the inductive method. These seven yield criteria considered in this study are the Mohr–Coulomb, Tresca, Drucker–Prager, Mogi–Coulomb, Extended Matsuoka–Nakai, Extended Lade–Duncan criteria, and the Unified Strength Theory. The generalized analytical solutions for earth pressure of retaining walls, critical load of strip foundations as well as stress and displacement of circular tunnels are derived on the basis of the proposed unified yield criterion, and their respective theoretical significance is analyzed. Thereafter, the critical load of strip foundations obtained herein is compared with two numerical results from the literature. Furthermore, the effect of strength theory on result differences of the three typical geotechnical problems by simply selecting constants, which conform to different yield criteria, is explored through a parametric study. It is found that the proposed unified yield criterion is convenient for investigating analytical solutions of the aforementioned geotechnical structures. The strength theory effect due to adopting different yield criteria is considerably significant, which cannot be ignored. Additionally, recommendations are provided on how to make use of these seven yield criteria for an optimum design.  相似文献   

Effects of mechanical layering on hydraulic fracturing in shale gas reservoirs based on numerical models     

Wei Ju  Caifang Wu  Weifeng Sun 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(12):323

Generally, induced hydraulic fractures are generated by fluid overpressure and are used to increase reservoir permeability through forming interconnected fracture systems. However, in heterogeneous and anisotropic rocks, many hydraulic fractures may become arrested or offset at layer contacts under certain conditions and do not form vertically connected fracture networks. Mechanical layering is an important factor causing anisotropy in sedimentary layers. Hence, in this study, with a shale gas reservoir case study in the Longmaxi Formation in the southeastern Chongqing region, Sichuan Basin, we present results from several numerical models to gain quantitative insights into the effects of mechanical layering on hydraulic fracturing. Results showed that the fractured area caused by hydraulic fracturing indicated a linear relationship with the neighboring layer’s Young’s modulus. An increase of the neighboring layer’s Young’s modulus resulted in better hydraulic fracturing effects. In addition, the contact between two neighboring layers is regarded as a zone with thickness and mechanical properties, which also influences the effects of hydraulic fracturing in reservoirs. The initial hydraulic fracture was unable to propagate into neighboring layers under a relatively low contact’s Young’s modulus. When associated local tensile stresses exceeded the rock strength, hydraulic fractures propagated into neighboring layers. Moreover, with the contact’s Young’s modulus becoming higher, the fractured area increased rapidly first, then slowly and finally became stable.  相似文献   

Probabilistic calibration of a coupled hydro-mechanical slope stability model with integration of multiple observations     

Lulu Zhang  Fang Wu  Yafei Zheng  Lihong Chen  Jie Zhang  Xu Li 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):169-182

Multiple types of responses, such as displacements, ground water level, pore water pressures, water contents, etc., are usually measured in comprehensive monitoring programmes for rainfall-induced landslide prevention. In this study, a probabilistic calibration method for coupled hydro-mechanical modelling of slope stability is presented with integration of multiple types of measurements. A numerical example of a soil slope under rainfall infiltration is illustrated to compare the effects of single and multiple types of responses on parameter estimation and model calibration. The results show that the soil parameters can be estimated with less uncertainty and total uncertainty bounds are narrower with multiple types of responses than with a single type of response. Model calibration based on multiple types of responses can compromise different responses and hence the means and standard deviations of model error are the smallest. A feasible correlation coefficient between soil modulus and permeability can be obtained from model calibration with multiple types of responses and single type of response as long as the responses include displacement data.  相似文献   

Photodegradation of dimethyl phthalate (DMP) by UV–TiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in aqueous solution: operational parameters and kinetic analysis     

W. W. Jing  D. Q. Li  J. Li  X. F. Li  Z. H. Wu  Y. L. Liu 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2018,15(5):969-976

In this paper, the adsorption and degradation phenomenon involved in the photocatalytic degradation of dimethyl phthalates (DMPs) by titanium dioxide (TiO₂) was studied. A variety of operating variables were selected firstly. Then, it was proved that even for such weak adsorption properties molecules as DMP, adsorption was still an important prerequisite for photolysis. A surface-mediated reaction process was proposed that the photodegradation of DMP assisted by TiO₂ particles occurred primarily at the surface of the photocatalyst rather than in the homogeneous phase. According to Langmuir–Hinshelwood model, the adsorption constant determined from the dark adsorption was far less than that obtained in the light condition. Enhanced DMP adsorption on the surface of TiO₂ under irradiation was the possible reason for the improvement of photodegradation efficiency. Under the irradiation of light, a synergistic mechanism of adsorption and photocatalysis was responsible for DMP degradation. The quantitative analysis by adding scavengers indicated that ^·OH radical was primarily responsible for the photodegradation of DMP. It was further verified that ^·OH was produced much more from conduction band electrons rather than valance band holes toward photodegradation of DMP by adding foreign Cu²⁺.  相似文献   

我国大风机理研究和预报技术进展     

王黉  李英  吴哲红  郭鹏 《气象科技》2019,47(4):600-607

大风作为常见且影响严重的天气现象,可在各类天气系统和地形综合影响下产生。全面认识其机理和预报方法,对风灾防御和风能利用都有很大帮助。本文梳理了我国气象观测和业务预报关于大风定义、大风分布特征以及雷暴、台风等主要灾害性系统大风分布情况。之后简述雷暴、台风、冷空气等系统产生大风的机理,以及复杂地形下垫面的热力和动力作用对局地大风的影响,概括了不同系统大风预报技术的研究进展。最后总结大风研究现状和不足。  相似文献   

江西省山地风场风速订正方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

吴琼  桂保玉  徐卫民 《气象与环境科学》2019,42(1):47-53

利用气象站、探空及NASA再分析资料,对江西省4县山地风场的12座测风塔风速进行订正研究。研究结果表明:测风塔与气象站风速数据相关性较低,相关系数一般远小于0.45;测风塔与探空资料的风速相关系数可达到0.6以上,最高可达到0.8;NASA再分析资料可以作为江西山地风场风速订正参证数据,其与测风塔风速数据相关性较高,相关系数可达到0.54～0.77,大多数测风塔相关系数可达0.7左右。海拔高度小于1000 m的测风塔与NASA 50 m风速的相关系数明显高于其与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数,高度为1000—1200 m的测风塔与NASA 50 m风速和与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数相差不明显,高度大于1200 m的测风塔与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数明显大于其与NASA 50 m风速的相关系数。比值法订正效果略好于线性回归法的,订正后的风功率密度总体偏大。  相似文献   

淮河流域(河南段)连续性暴雨天气分型及环流背景          下载免费PDF全文

梁钰  王君  吴璐 《气象与环境科学》2019,42(2):48-54

利用19812016年68月河南省淮河流域64个国家自动观测站逐日2020时日降水量资料、常规高空探测和地面观测资料等对淮河流域连续性暴雨时间分布特征、影响系统等进行分析和天气分型,结果表明:1)36年淮河流域共发生45次连续性暴雨,2000年的最多,19982008年是高发期,近10年较少,年出现次数无明显减少趋势,存在2~4年和4~6年两个周期;7月连续性暴雨次数最多,6月的最少,旬分布呈正态分布;最长连续时间5天,连续2天的最多。2)影响系统主要有切变线和高低空急流,高空急流在方向转换的过程中,降水有24h左右的减弱期,低空急流有明显的日变化特征,夜间加强,白天减弱。3)连续性暴雨按照500hPa影响系统,分为低槽型、副高边缘型、西北低涡型三类。4)以不同类型的3次典型连续性暴雨为例,从大尺度环流背景、高度距平场、水汽输送、高低空急流等方面探讨了连续性暴雨的维持成因,3次连续性暴雨的发生与异常的500hPa大气环流、高低空急流、切变线和持续偏强的水汽输送等有关。  相似文献   

台风“尤特”登陆后复杂路径的环境场特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

覃武  罗小莉  钟利华  林宗桂  林开平  林墨 《气象与环境科学》2019,42(1):110-118

台风"尤特"(1311)2013年8月13—19日登陆减弱后直达桂东北并停留打转,其后又转向西南移动,"尤特"残涡在广西境内生存活动了112 h,造成了大范围强降雨。使用常规与非常规观测资料,研究了"尤特"登陆后的环境场与其长生命期及复杂移动路径的关系。结果发现:"尤特"登陆北上阶段主要受大尺度环境场的引导气流主导,后因引导气流转向减弱,与变压梯度力近似达到平衡导致停留打转;南下弱冷空气卷入与西南气流辐合形成负变压槽,负变压槽中风向气旋性切变产生正涡度效应向"尤特"残涡输送,与西南气流充沛的水汽输送共同作用使"尤特"残涡得以长时间维持。弱冷空气卷入使中尺度变压场中的正变压加强,在变压梯度力与引导气流共同作用下,"尤特"残涡沿负变压槽向西南移动。  相似文献